Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8E 0x8eab…7975 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$27
sports 11% −$19
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -5.7%
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -5.7%
≤90d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 57% -5.7%
all 8 +13.5% +2.7% 62% 62% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 62% -5.3%
10% -7.2% 25% -14.4%
15% -16.1% 25% -22.6%
20% -24.3% 25% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage146d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $582 $578 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $86 +$13 +15%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$15 +134%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $61 +$10 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $1 +$1 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $498 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $86 49m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 21h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $71 21h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $61 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $61 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $62 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 25h
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) BUY Pakistan 5¢ $6 128d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) BUY Pakistan 25¢ $10 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? BUY No 45¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.37 · official $578.37 (match) · 19 history records