Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8eac…e9e1
crypto · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$490 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$489 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$489
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses46 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage179d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 89¢ 84¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$12 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 19 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 15 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $37 −$18 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 14 $7 −$4 -49%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6AM ET Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Apr 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$419
other 27% −$71
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 25% -26.9%
≤30d 8 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 25% -26.9%
≤90d 54 -53.0% -57.5% 30% 17% -47.3%
all 92 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 35% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 35% -30.7%
10% -36.6% 22% -37.3%
15% -42.7% 14% -43.4%
20% -48.4% 9% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.65 · official $21.40 (match) · 250 history records