Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8eae…8643 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 94L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$9
other 41% −$7
sports 6% +$72
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 2% -9.6%
all 108 +1.6% -8.1% 13% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 7% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage118d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $141 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $120 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $424 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $138 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $129 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $129 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $309 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 6h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 9h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 15d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 30d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $134 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $134 32d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 33d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 33d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $140 33d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $140 34d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.99 · official $20.99 (match) · 297 history records