Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8eb2…e091 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$523 (-23%) realized −$524 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$501
politics 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$18
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +111.0% +90.9% 100% 100% +83.8%
≤90d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 40% -17.5%
all 23 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 39% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 39% -31.1%
10% -26.0% 39% -37.7%
15% -33.2% 39% -43.7%
20% -39.7% 35% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$112 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$524
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage218d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 36¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $24 +$36 +152%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $51 −$7 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $19 −$18 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $52 −$51 -99%
Sabres vs. Penguins Mar 05 $90 −$90 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Mar 05 $52 +$38 +72%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 03 $426 −$426 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 03 $204 +$221 +108%
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks Feb 02 $119 +$86 +72%
Blues vs. Stars Jan 30 $74 +$45 +61%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jan 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Jets vs. Red Wings Dec 31 $125 −$125 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 31 $101 +$124 +122%
Canucks vs. Flyers Dec 22 $176 −$176 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Dec 22 $100 +$76 +75%
Kings vs. Kraken Dec 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 05 $106 −$106 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Dec 05 $6 $0 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $112 +$48 +43%
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m? Nov 25 $6 $0 +6%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 25 $98 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $89 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $35 10d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $24 42d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 58d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $43 58d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $51 58d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 56¢ $52 64d
Sabres vs. Penguins BUY Penguins 49¢ $90 113d
Rockets vs. Hornets BUY Rockets 58¢ $52 130d
Jazz vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 59¢ $426 143d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $204 144d
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks BUY Blue Jackets 58¢ $119 147d
Blues vs. Stars BUY Stars 62¢ $74 154d
Hawks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 53¢ $80 168d
Jets vs. Red Wings BUY Jets 47¢ $125 177d
Texans vs. Chargers BUY Texans 45¢ $101 184d
Canucks vs. Flyers BUY Canucks 45¢ $176 186d
Kings vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 57¢ $100 191d
Kings vs. Kraken BUY Kings 58¢ $100 198d
Heat vs. Magic BUY Heat 35¢ $106 203d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $54 212d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY No 98¢ $6 212d
Clippers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 70¢ $112 213d
Thunder vs. Jazz BUY Thunder 93¢ $98 218d
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 137m? BUY No 94¢ $6 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.75 · official $88.75 (match) · 38 history records