Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8eba…6c18 weather 1125 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$427 (-4%) realized −$428 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%832W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$68
14 days−$62
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$394
other 4% −$2
world 3% +$6
sports 2% −$42
crypto 1% −$3
economics 0% −$8
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 530 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 9% -11.8%
≤30d 753 -4.7% -13.8% 86% 8% -11.3%
≤90d 968 -3.6% -12.8% 86% 8% -13.3%
all 968 -3.6% -12.8% 86% 8% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 8% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 2% -21.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -29.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses832 / 136
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions157
Markets (closed)968 / 1125
History coverage68d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 157 History 968 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 14h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.30 · official $909.63 (match) · 2811 history records