Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8E 0x8ebb…f5f6 crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%253W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$63
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$23
politics 7% −$32
finance 4% −$18
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -1.7% -11.0% 96% 1% -11.7%
≤30d 261 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 261 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses253 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)261 / 266
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.66 · official $94.91 (match) · 531 history records