Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8E 0x8ebd…a7e8 crypto 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$377 (-4%) realized −$381 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%198W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day128.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$84
14 days−$174
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 81% -11.9%
≤30d 301 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 59% -11.3%
≤90d 301 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 59% -11.3%
all 301 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 59% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 59% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -19.8%
15% -30.0% 14% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses198 / 103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)301 / 299
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day128.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 82¢ 94¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $31 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.97 · official $31.95 (match) · 3500 history records