Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ebf…83ce other 812 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73,771 (+2%) realized +$73,916 · open −$145
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%754W / 35L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$3,659per market
Trades / day90.1pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$123,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80,601
7 days+$80,699
14 days+$83,021
30 days+$88,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$79,933
crypto 19% +$3,669
world 13% +$2,765
sports 10% −$324
other 5% +$195
finance 5% +$1,937
tech 0% +$16
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -5.0% -14.1% 81% 5% -4.5%
≤30d 789 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 3% -6.7%
≤90d 789 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 3% -6.7%
all 789 +7.8% -2.5% 96% 3% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 3% -6.7%
10% -11.8% 2% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 2% -23.8%
20% -28.1% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$115 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×24.96 per $1 lost it wins $24.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$123,730
Realized+$73,916
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses754 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions32
Markets (closed)789 / 812
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$3,659
Trades / day90.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $109,890 $109,945 +$55 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $13,260 $13,178 −$82 (-1%)
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 1 - 0 Salford City FC? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $44 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 13¢ $90 $32 −$58 (-65%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 48¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-26%)
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire - Toss Match Double Nottinghamshire Winner No 100¢ 50¢ $45 $23 −$22 (-49%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 66¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+28%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $12 $6 −$6 (-51%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 14¢ $14 $5 −$8 (-63%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of June? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-42%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-51%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $7 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26,158 +$492 +2%
Game 3: Any Player Rampage? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10,901 +$158 +1%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $340,000 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $4,927 +$291 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $697 −$83 -12%
Yasin Ayari: 3+ shots Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Anthony Elanga: 5+ shots Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Victor Nilsson-Lindelöf: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Daniel Svensson: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ shots Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Alexander Bernhardsson: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $555 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $550 +$6 +1%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Denzel Dumfries: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $218 +$9 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1,778 +$5 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,042 +$31 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $988 +$11 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $970 +$28 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $990 +$8 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $581 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $1,203 +$6 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $594 +$15 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $109 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,000,000 +$80,000 +8%
Vukic vs. Wendelken: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4,994 +$5 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 14 $40 −$28 -70%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $555 +$1 +0%
Lyndon Dykes: 1+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Lyndon Dykes: 2+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $24,690 −$238 -1%
WTT - Women's Singles: Sakura Yokoi vs Yuling Zhu Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -42%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $4,991 +$19 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5,306 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $42 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $9,750 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $206 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $46 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4,006 2h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $87 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,860 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,860 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $959 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123,730.19 · official $123,730.19 (match) · 3500 history records