Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ec2…9ce0 crypto 44 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (344 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,413 (-11%) realized −$5,363 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 47L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day344.0pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$11,832
sports 10% +$5,139
other 4% −$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (344 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -19.2% -26.9% 25% 21% -44.6%
≤30d 62 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 21% -33.5%
≤90d 62 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 21% -33.5%
all 62 -23.0% -30.3% 24% 21% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover344.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 21% -33.5%
10% -37.0% 21% -39.9%
15% ← realistic here -43.1% 8% -45.7%
20% -48.7% 8% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,302) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
74.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$889 vs −$580 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5,363
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 44
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day344.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $143 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$825 +602485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 17 $776 −$686 -88%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $777 −$777 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $707 −$377 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $391 −$384 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $798 +$202 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $175 −$166 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $336 −$336 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $602 −$98 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $516 −$496 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $800 +$189 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $586 −$121 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $581 −$581 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $978 −$104 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $720 −$720 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1,200 +$300 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1,627 −$1,309 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1,656 −$1,265 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3,100 +$775 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $2,400 +$600 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2,443 −$2,443 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2,956 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1,571 −$1,570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2,000 +$500 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2,000 +$500 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $447 +$727 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $85 −$81 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $282 −$111 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $68 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $309 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $202 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $310 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 3500 history records