Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8ec6…b459
crypto · 1369 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$476 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$456 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9
Realized−$456
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses599 / 748
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1347 / 1369
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 9 History 1347 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$20
14 days+$16
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 45¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? No 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$11 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$14 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$7 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$20 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$11 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$11 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$467
weather 10% −$4
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$9
politics 0% +$20
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 49¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 40¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 42% -4.0%
≤30d 237 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 28% -17.2%
≤90d 1200 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 44% -18.1%
all 1347 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 43% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 43% -17.3%
10% -27.0% 40% -25.2%
15% -34.1% 33% -32.4%
20% -40.5% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.42 · official $9.42 (match) · 2955 history records