trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 45% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 45% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 25 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 56% | 4% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.6% | 4% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -20.1% | 0% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 0% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 0% | -32.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $54 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $51 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $48 | +$1 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $18 | +$1 | +5% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | May 05 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 29 | $19 | $0 | -2% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 30 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? | Mar 30 | $19 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? | Mar 17 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? | Mar 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? | Mar 12 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $15 | +$3 | +22% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $16 | $0 | -0% |