Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ec9…27d2 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$24
politics 25% −$1
world 20% $0
sports 11% +$1
culture 10% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -3.3% -12.5% 32% 5% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 5% -11.8%
10% -20.9% 5% -20.2%
15% -28.5% 5% -27.9%
20% -35.5% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage381d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $30 −$1 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $49 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $113 −$21 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $14 −$2 -16%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $28 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $30 17h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $43 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $43 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 22d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $92 96d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $113 96d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL Yes $5 97d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL Yes $7 97d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes $1 97d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes $13 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.10 · official $46.86 (match) · 76 history records