Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8eca…73ae crypto 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,150 (+2%) realized +$1,148 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate77%507W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,622
7 days−$1,606
14 days+$470
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$287
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 59% -13.6%
≤30d 653 -0.3% -9.8% 77% 61% -9.1%
≤90d 657 -0.2% -9.7% 77% 61% -9.1%
all 657 -0.2% -9.7% 77% 61% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 61% -9.1%
10% -18.3% 41% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 23% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$88 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$1,148
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses507 / 150
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)657 / 658
History coverage51d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 83¢ 84¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.67 · official $93.25 · 1241 history records