Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ecd…5512 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$282 (-38%) realized −$280 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$71
politics 22% −$152
sports 22% −$29
crypto 3% −$20
weather 2% −$15
other 2% +$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -88.1%
all 32 -44.8% -50.1% 25% 16% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 16% -49.4%
10% -54.9% 9% -54.3%
15% -59.2% 9% -58.7%
20% -63.2% 3% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage239d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 29¢ 28¢ $103 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 26? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? Mar 25 $146 −$146 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $52 −$12 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 26? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 18 $65 −$7 -10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 28 $20 −$3 -15%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 28 $20 −$1 -7%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jan 28 $20 −$1 -3%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $66 +$7 +10%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $45 +$20 +45%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 19 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Nov 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Nov 19 $5 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Nov 19 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Nov 19 $5 +$3 +67%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Nov 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Nov 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 19 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31? Nov 06 $5 −$2 -39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Nov 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 06 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 29¢ $62 49m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 29¢ $41 1h
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 50¢ $20 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 84d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 84d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 90d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 34¢ $58 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 73¢ $30 90d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 38¢ $15 90d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $20 90d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 90d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 38¢ $50 90d
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 139d
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 139d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $17 139d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $19 139d
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 139d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? SELL No 61¢ $19 139d
Will Trump say "Buy a Dell Computer" during remarks on January 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 140d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 140d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $20 140d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $20 140d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? BUY No 63¢ $20 142d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Gaethje 41¢ $10 143d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) SELL OMalley 100¢ $65 143d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Gaethje 58¢ $6 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.86 · official $101.89 (match) · 77 history records