Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ecf…0f2c world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
politics 20% $0
economics 10% $0
other 8% $0
finance 8% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -10.6%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage265d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $37 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $9 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $41 −$5 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 06 $18 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 02 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $18 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $10 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $37 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $6 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $6 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $12 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $14 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $24 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $41 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $41 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $41 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $41 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $13 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records