Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8ed2…60a4
crypto · 33 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$43 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$167 · open −$125
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$167
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $122 +$202 +165%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$24 +78%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$39
other 24% +$102
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $122 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 35% +9.5%
≤30d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 35% +9.5%
≤90d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 35% +9.5%
all 31 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 35% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 35% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 35% -1.0%
15% -33.0% 32% -10.5%
20% -39.6% 29% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $28.01 · 54 history records