Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ed5…7c3a crypto 1724 markets active 11h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,537 (-2%) realized −$2,541 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate78%1329W / 382L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day79.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$61
14 days−$381
30 days−$3,264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,867
weather 1% −$193
other 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -13.7% -21.9% 31% 31% -19.9%
≤30d 1711 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 34% -11.4%
≤90d 1711 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 34% -11.4%
all 1711 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 34% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 21% -19.9%
15% -29.1% 13% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$48 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$2,541
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1329 / 382
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1711 / 1724
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day79.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 20? Yes 40¢ 60¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Yes 27¢ 40¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 20? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 20? Yes 45¢ 25¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 301 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 19 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 19 $9 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$20 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $18 +$8 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$22 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$17 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$8 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$41 +446%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 45¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL Yes 17¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 44¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.99 · official $63.90 (match) · 3500 history records