Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8ed7…8ad2 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$9
politics 24% +$7
economics 22% −$4
other 19% +$14
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 14% -10.6%
≤90d 19 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 11% -9.6%
all 66 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage475d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $217 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $148 −$9 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $112 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $34 +$8 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $21 −$1 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $1,032 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $938 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $1,883 −$4 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $942 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $966 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $942 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 09 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $7 +$1 +8%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $6 +$2 +35%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $17 +$1 +6%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 07 $2 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? May 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $3 $0 -11%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $78 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $113 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $8 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $106 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $113 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $114 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $114 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $103 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $103 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $87 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $112 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $27 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $93 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $55 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $27 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $99 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $147 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records