Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8ed8…8b49 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+26%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$7
other 38% +$43
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.1% +17.7% 80% 80% +25.7%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 36% +22.5%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 36% +22.5%
all 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 36% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 36% +22.5%
10% -17.7% 36% +10.8%
15% -25.6% 29% +0.1%
20% -32.9% 14% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$29 +120%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $36 +$13 +36%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $28 +$9 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $24 3h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 100¢ $49 4h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 73¢ $36 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $37 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $28 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 11d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 11d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 11d
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 11d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13d
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 13d
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 13d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 13d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records