Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ed8…7c2f world 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,595 (-12%) realized −$10,195 · open +$600
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 36L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$936per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,597
7 days−$9,059
14 days−$8,642
30 days−$7,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$9,208
world 39% +$1,824
politics 8% −$1,016
sports 6% +$629
crypto 4% −$990
finance 2% +$5
economics 1% −$746
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.2% -26.9% 35% 35% -14.5%
≤30d 25 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 44% -10.4%
≤90d 61 +7.1% -3.1% 54% 48% -11.3%
all 74 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 46% -13.2%
10% -19.9% 31% -21.5%
15% -27.6% 22% -29.1%
20% -34.7% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,044) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$775 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$6,910
Realized−$10,195
Unrealized+$600
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions11
Markets (closed)74 / 85
History coverage562d
Avg bet$936
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1,500 $1,418 −$82 (-5%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $750 $1,330 +$580 (+77%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1,315 $1,195 −$120 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $820 $984 +$164 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $600 $628 +$28 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $511 $554 +$43 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $205 $251 +$45 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $209 $220 +$11 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $158 −$42 (-21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9,543 −$7,587 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,043 +$2,153 +71%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,824 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $600 +$400 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,174 +$1,026 +47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,642 −$1,620 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,548 +$1,448 +57%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $901 −$880 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $797 +$2,200 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,792 −$1,770 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,504 −$2,500 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3,149 −$301 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,623 +$417 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $1,615 +$579 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $810 −$128 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 23 $990 +$110 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 23 $1,020 +$180 +18%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Apr 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 16 $52 +$7 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $450 −$54 -12%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Apr 16 $174 −$6 -3%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Apr 16 $736 −$56 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 16 $700 +$169 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $710 +$155 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $900 +$28 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 16 $1,068 −$14 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 16 $1,154 +$115 +10%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 16 $1,270 −$409 -32%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $5,118 −$4,494 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $697 +$29 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $1,044 −$316 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $260 +$45 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 14 $255 +$20 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 13 $446 −$17 -4%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,488 +$361 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 12 $62 −$58 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 12 $222 +$260 +117%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $550 −$20 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 11 $900 +$100 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $431 1m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $135 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $341 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $356 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,034 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $510 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,006 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $705 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $918 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $2,626 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,910.21 · official $6,192.94 · 557 history records