Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ed8…48b8 sports 233 markets active 6d ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-4%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%122W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$87
14 days−$157
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$142
crypto 43% −$258
other 5% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -33.1% -39.4% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 119 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 42% -19.1%
≤90d 119 -16.9% -24.8% 43% 42% -19.1%
all 233 -16.6% -24.5% 52% 41% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 41% -20.2%
10% -31.8% 33% -27.9%
15% -38.4% 29% -34.8%
20% -44.4% 22% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses122 / 111
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage196d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$23 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$10 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$8 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $26 +$14 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $70 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$10 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $61 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records