Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8eda…18fe
other · 16 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$28 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 4 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$28 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$36 +1695%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$31
sports 29% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu SELL Yue Yuan 12¢ $4 5m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 14¢ $5 7m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 9m
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 84¢ $31 15m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 6h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 9h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 13h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 13¢ $5 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+83.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +102.5% +83.2% 25% 17% +9.7%
≤30d 12 +102.5% +83.2% 25% 17% +9.7%
≤90d 12 +102.5% +83.2% 25% 17% +9.7%
all 12 +102.5% +83.2% 25% 17% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.2% 17% +9.7%
10% +65.7% 17% -0.8%
15% +49.7% 17% -10.4%
20% +35.0% 17% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.28 (match) · 27 history records