Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8edc…80d8 weather 628 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$620 (+4%) realized +$406 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%273W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$280
14 days+$280
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$764
sports 1% −$38
other 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +20.4% +8.9% 69% 69% +12.5%
≤30d 42 +20.4% +8.9% 69% 69% +12.5%
≤90d 455 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 57% -18.0%
all 455 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 57% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 57% -18.0%
10% -30.3% 45% -25.9%
15% -37.1% 23% -33.0%
20% -43.2% 13% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$5,899
Realized+$406
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses273 / 182
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions173
Markets (closed)455 / 628
History coverage72d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 173 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 29? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $51 $82 +$30 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Yes 35¢ 55¢ $51 $80 +$29 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29? No 69¢ 97¢ $50 $71 +$20 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $30 $70 +$40 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $30 $70 +$40 (+131%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 44¢ 99¢ $31 $69 +$38 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $28 $69 +$40 (+144%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Yes 62¢ 83¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $31 $66 +$35 (+116%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 29? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $51 $66 +$15 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $30 $64 +$34 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $51 $64 +$13 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $51 $63 +$12 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $30 $62 +$31 (+103%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? Yes 47¢ 57¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $47 $60 +$13 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 30? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $51 $59 +$8 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 29? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $50 $54 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? No 74¢ 78¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 29? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 29? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $23 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $22 +$21 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$35 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$39 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $29 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 +$22 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$21 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$41 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$41 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 +$56 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$39 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$10 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$31 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 +$45 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$16 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$26 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$30 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $32 +$43 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 +$33 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? May 26 $36 +$19 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? May 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $26 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 25? May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $19 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 9m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 29? BUY No 78¢ $30 39m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 39m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 77¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 77¢ $16 54m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $16 54m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 54m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 29? BUY No 85¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 29? BUY No 86¢ $19 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 75¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30? BUY No 76¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 75¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 29? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 75¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 61¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 29? BUY No 76¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 85¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 82¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 87¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 71¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 60¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,899.48 · official $5,899.52 (match) · 1411 history records