Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8E
0x8ede…ce7e
crypto · 1469 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$224 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$225 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$40
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses817 / 648
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1465 / 1469
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1465 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$23
14 days−$40
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 92¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 92¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $23 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$308
weather 24% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 93¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 61% -4.7%
≤30d 226 -2.6% -11.9% 73% 64% -7.1%
≤90d 1364 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 50% -13.4%
all 1465 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 49% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 42% -20.7%
15% -29.8% 36% -28.3%
20% -36.7% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.26 · official $40.26 (match) · 3500 history records