Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ede…5212 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,155 (-53%) realized −$1,255 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$574
sports 46% −$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.4% -58.8% 22% 22% -76.1%
≤30d 9 -54.4% -58.8% 22% 22% -76.1%
≤90d 9 -54.4% -58.8% 22% 22% -76.1%
all 9 -54.4% -58.8% 22% 22% -76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 22% -76.1%
10% -62.7% 22% -78.3%
15% -66.3% 22% -80.4%
20% -69.6% 22% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$196 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized−$1,255
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $400 $445 +$45 (+11%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 77¢ 98¢ $200 $256 +$56 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $710 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $201 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $263 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $102 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $710 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.29 · official $700.29 (match) · 17 history records