Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ee1…377a sports 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,512 (-5%) realized −$1,487 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%372W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$75
14 days−$185
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1,320
crypto 28% −$464
other 3% +$133
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.3% +26.0% 100% 100% +25.4%
≤30d 43 +1.1% -8.5% 65% 51% -16.2%
≤90d 227 +0.4% -9.2% 61% 49% -14.6%
all 637 -2.8% -12.0% 58% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -14.4%
10% -20.4% 35% -22.6%
15% -28.1% 27% -30.0%
20% -35.2% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,487
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses372 / 265
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)637 / 638
History coverage230d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 67¢ 36¢ $55 $30 −$25 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +23%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $31 +$18 +56%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $49 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$69 +177%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $69 +$26 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$12 +14%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $67 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 +$33 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $51 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $70 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $31 +$42 +137%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 30 $22 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $9 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 30 $6 +$4 +63%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 30 $60 +$3 +4%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX - Map 2 Winner May 30 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 30 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner May 30 $27 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 30 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner May 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 23 $7 −$6 -88%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner May 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner May 23 $27 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 67¢ $56 7m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $54 9m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 95¢ $49 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 60¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 80¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $51 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $107 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 35¢ $39 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $45 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $114 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $66 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $95 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $69 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $24 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $22 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.07 · official $30.07 (match) · 1561 history records