Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8ee5…96d8 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+25%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$51
sports 27% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.9% +6.6% 72% 61% +18.8%
≤30d 18 +17.9% +6.6% 72% 61% +18.8%
≤90d 18 +17.9% +6.6% 72% 61% +18.8%
all 18 +17.9% +6.6% 72% 61% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 61% +18.8%
10% -3.6% 56% +7.4%
15% -12.9% 39% -3.0%
20% -21.4% 33% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +87%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $14 +$27 +197%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$66 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 40¢ $11 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $10 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $14 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 84¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 33¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records