Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ee5…0354 sports 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-12%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$138
other 38% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 43% -35.9%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -21.8%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -21.8%
all 8 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 50% -21.8%
10% -19.3% 50% -29.3%
15% -27.1% 50% -36.1%
20% -34.3% 38% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$41 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$92 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +113%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$30 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $54 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $20 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 4¢ $10 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 51¢ $50 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $72 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records