Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8E 0x8ee7…6760 sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,615 (+5%) realized +$2,615 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate78%56W / 16L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$545est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$858
7 days+$1,007
14 days+$1,039
30 days+$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$695
other 34% +$974
crypto 9% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.8% -12.9% 67% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 6 +69.2% +53.1% 67% 17% -4.6%
≤90d 59 +24.4% +12.6% 80% 25% -6.1%
all 72 +22.4% +10.8% 78% 29% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 29% -6.2%
10% +0.2% 18% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here -9.5% 11% -23.4%
20% -18.4% 7% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$804) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
27.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.59 per $1 lost it wins $7.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses56 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$714
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11,088 +$858 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $99 −$22 -23%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,818 +$172 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,075 +$31 +2%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $0 +$1 +525%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $852 +$36 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 15 $378 +$8 +2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $0 +$2 +614%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,680 +$105 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $24 +$4 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Apr 25 $4 $0 +10%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Apr 25 $28 +$7 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 24 $40 +$2 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Eric McConico vs. Rodolfo Vieira (null, Prelims) Apr 24 $8 +$1 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 24 $800 +$27 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 23 $766 −$34 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 22 $757 +$21 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 19 $58 +$6 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam (Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 19 $6 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Pr Apr 19 $309 +$51 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 18 $2,861 −$5 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 18 $984 +$14 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $563 +$2 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Apr 17 $69 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $442 $0 -0%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 15 $407 +$11 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Apr 15 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 15 $564 −$34 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, Apr 15 $714 +$42 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Apr 15 $395 +$8 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P Apr 15 $9 −$3 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 15 $221 +$17 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 15 $477 +$6 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 15 $804 +$13 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 15 $154 +$35 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 15 $253 +$3 +1%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 15 $205 +$20 +10%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 15 $1,099 +$15 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Apr 15 $845 +$11 +1%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $1,919 −$10 -0%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 11 $921 +$4 +0%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $4 +$1 +23%
UFC 327: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $151 −$2 -1%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 10 $275 +$60 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 05 $25 +$10 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers (Lightweight, Preli Apr 05 $8 +$2 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light He Apr 05 $1 +$1 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 04 $900 +$45 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $308 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,932 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $310 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $400 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records