Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ee9…1362 sports 1206 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,450 (-2%) realized −$2,511 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%562W / 640L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$714est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$792
14 days+$594
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,266
other 4% −$235
crypto 2% +$414
world 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -45.0% -50.2% 33% 33% -50.6%
≤30d 157 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 48% -9.5%
≤90d 612 -18.9% -26.6% 40% 40% -25.2%
all 1202 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 45% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -10.4%
10% -25.5% 42% -19.0%
15% -32.7% 37% -26.8%
20% -39.3% 29% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$79 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$2,511
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses562 / 640
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$714
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1202 / 1206
History coverage153d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $150 $190 +$40 (+26%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 47¢ 70¢ $45 $66 +$22 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $65 −$64 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $175 +$87 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $115 −$114 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $18 +$24 +134%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$7 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $207 −$206 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $126 +$58 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$97 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $166 +$129 +78%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $169 −$167 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$263 +244%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $250 +$150 +60%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $218 +$102 +47%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $166 +$94 +57%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $117 −$115 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $167 +$206 +123%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $89 +$46 +52%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $203 +$189 +93%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $49 +$111 +226%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $72 +$179 +250%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $101 +$75 +74%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $124 +$102 +83%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $43 +$89 +208%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $126 +$78 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$87 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $170 +$177 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $205 −$204 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $124 +$32 +26%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +188%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $79 −$77 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $108 −$106 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $128 +$50 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $45 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 32¢ $65 28h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 66¢ $175 32h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 54¢ $81 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $43 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $115 2d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Adam Walton 32¢ $48 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Giles Hussey vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 68¢ $101 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 42¢ $18 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 25¢ $15 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 66¢ $198 5d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $192 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $126 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $127 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $59 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $1 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $6 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $67 5d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 25¢ $30 5d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 35¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $65 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $101 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 56¢ $144 8d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 18¢ $26 8d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.04 · official $256.04 (match) · 3169 history records