Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ef3…ac46 weather 724 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$872 (-4%) realized −$782 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%321W / 368L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$30
14 days−$38
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$1,120
world 34% +$209
crypto 10% −$133
other 6% +$95
politics 4% +$12
tech 3% −$51
finance 0% +$6
culture 0% +$35
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.8% -0.6% 35% 25% -12.7%
≤30d 65 -1.2% -10.7% 54% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 636 -10.6% -19.1% 45% 35% -13.6%
all 689 -9.5% -18.1% 47% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 36% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 27% -21.1%
15% -33.1% 22% -28.8%
20% -39.6% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized−$782
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses321 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)689 / 724
History coverage106d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 16¢ 15¢ $40 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 33¢ 46¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+41%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 91¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? No 12¢ 17¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+150%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 37¢ 44¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 66¢ 39¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-42%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 64¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? No 37¢ 37¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 59¢ 17¢ $47 $14 −$34 (-71%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 18¢ $40 $13 −$27 (-67%)
Will Bruno Guimarães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 76¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 17¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 44¢ 46¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $281 −$32 -11%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $133 +$4 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$17 +43%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $117 −$7 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $87 −$14 -17%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$43 +850%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $73 −$13 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$3 -29%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 05 $20 −$1 -3%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 05 $60 −$51 -84%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 04 $20 +$5 +23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 04 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 04 $20 −$12 -62%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $284 +$30 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $50 −$11 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$8 +19%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $147 +$49 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $120 +$20 +16%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? May 29 $38 +$14 +36%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 27 $40 −$32 -81%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 27 $23 −$15 -66%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $263 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $41 +$3 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 +$7 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $40 −$31 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 25 $42 +$4 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $25 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $41 +$7 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $27 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $6 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $7 20m
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $4 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $9 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $57 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $8 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $47 14h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 14h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $88 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 80¢ $22 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 90¢ $21 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 90¢ $33 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 91¢ $18 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $189 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $45 24h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 31h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.10 · official $535.20 (match) · 2977 history records