Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8E 0x8ef3…ca7a sports 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%63W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$41
politics 5% −$40
other 2% −$12
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.3% -17.9% 75% 12% -10.4%
≤30d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 21% -8.7%
≤90d 99 -2.0% -11.4% 64% 45% -10.0%
all 99 -2.0% -11.4% 64% 45% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 45% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 30% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 17% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses63 / 36
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage82d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $27 +$3 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $26 $0 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $28 +$1 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $75 −$14 -18%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $39 +$2 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $29 +$3 +9%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +125%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$3 -48%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $52 −$2 -4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $9 +$1 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Sloane Stephens May 25 $8 +$2 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $8 −$2 -27%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $10 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $17 +$3 +15%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $16 +$4 +26%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $5 +$5 +92%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $3 +$3 +112%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 15 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $8 +$9 +116%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $22 +$6 +28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $9 −$2 -22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova May 10 $19 −$5 -29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $15 −$3 -20%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 09 $2 $0 -19%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 09 $6 $0 -6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $1 +$1 +112%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva May 08 $2 +$1 +70%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $9 −$2 -23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $27 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $26 28m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 86¢ $26 31m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $30 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $28 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $60 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 93¢ $56 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 7¢ $2 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 85¢ $20 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $41 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $39 23h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $32 26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 91¢ $29 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 87¢ $30 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $28 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 90¢ $25 7d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $24 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $23 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 94¢ $22 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $10 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $10 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 93¢ $9 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.63 · official $25.63 (match) · 269 history records