Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8E 0x8ef4…7967 crypto 519 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-9%) realized −$70 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%235W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$63
sports 23% −$4
weather 6% −$16
politics 4% +$1
other 4% −$9
world 3% +$10
tech 2% −$5
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 52% -10.7%
≤30d 204 +4.2% -5.8% 54% 52% -10.7%
≤90d 452 -10.3% -18.8% 47% 42% -19.5%
all 509 -11.9% -20.3% 46% 41% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 41% -20.4%
10% -27.9% 33% -28.1%
15% -34.9% 23% -35.0%
20% -41.3% 18% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses235 / 274
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)509 / 519
History coverage104d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 86¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 55¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No 55¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +400%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +193%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $2 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 47¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $1 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $1 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 19¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $1 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 41¢ $1 31h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 65¢ $2 31h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 67¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 44¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 38h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 54¢ $3 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.71 · official $8.70 (match) · 1090 history records