Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8E 0x8efa…59c9 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$197 (+16%) realized +$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%101W / 45L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day71.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$187
sports 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +13.9% +3.0% 69% 60% +2.9%
≤30d 146 +13.9% +3.0% 69% 60% +2.9%
≤90d 146 +13.9% +3.0% 69% 60% +2.9%
all 146 +13.9% +3.0% 69% 60% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.0% 60% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 53% -7.0%
15% -15.8% 45% -15.9%
20% -24.1% 34% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses101 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 65¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $0.69 (match) · 297 history records