Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8E 0x8efb…c0e6 sports 666 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-2%) realized −$221 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%356W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$147
14 days−$103
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$235
other 7% −$177
world 0% −$13
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -5.3% -14.4% 60% 47% -15.0%
≤30d 192 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 52% -11.8%
≤90d 614 -2.4% -11.7% 55% 48% -11.8%
all 665 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 47% -12.3%
10% -21.1% 42% -20.7%
15% -28.8% 35% -28.3%
20% -35.7% 28% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses356 / 309
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)665 / 666
History coverage101d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 234 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $171 −$41 -24%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$12 -59%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $40 +$3 +9%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $180 +$8 +4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $24 +$3 +14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $7 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $4 +$2 +43%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $60 −$60 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $14 +$12 +84%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $105 −$102 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $181 +$27 +15%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $121 +$10 +9%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $125 +$34 +27%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $4 +$4 +97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $104 +$6 +6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 +$3 +119%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $51 +$33 +65%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $29 +$11 +37%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $4 +$3 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $49 +$24 +48%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $24 +$3 +11%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $4 +$5 +124%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $4 +$2 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 +$22 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 −$51 -56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $4 +$5 +124%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $54 +$5 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $48 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 96¢ $180 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 93¢ $20 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 67¢ $4 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 99¢ $4 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 72¢ $3 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 34¢ $2 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $4 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $6 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $40 14h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 14h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL Mentality Monster 100¢ $26 14h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 2¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $101 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $4 15h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 52¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 58¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $20 18h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 53¢ $4 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.50 · official $35.50 (match) · 1434 history records