Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8E 0x8efe…7498 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$5
other 12% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% +15.6%
≤30d 3 +25.2% +13.3% 67% 67% +15.6%
≤90d 54 +10.2% -0.3% 41% 28% -5.6%
all 54 +10.2% -0.3% 41% 28% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 28% -5.6%
10% -9.9% 19% -14.6%
15% -18.6% 15% -22.8%
20% -26.6% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $9 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 19 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 19 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 19 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 18 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 18 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 18 $2 +$4 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 18 $1 +$6 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 18 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 18 $12 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $7 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.57 · official $9.57 (match) · 204 history records