Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8F 0x8f00…2f63 sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-0%) realized −$2,794 · open +$2,602
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%77W / 62L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$351est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,556
7 days+$4,376
14 days−$836
30 days−$1,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,532
other 26% +$1,511
world 5% −$2,313
crypto 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 57% +5.2%
≤30d 139 -4.3% -13.5% 55% 49% -11.9%
≤90d 139 -4.3% -13.5% 55% 49% -11.9%
all 139 -4.3% -13.5% 55% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -11.9%
10% -21.7% 42% -20.3%
15% -29.3% 34% -28.0%
20% -36.2% 24% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$244 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$4,850
Realized−$2,794
Unrealized+$2,602
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses77 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$351
Open positions4
Markets (closed)139 / 143
History coverage24d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 39¢ 100¢ $978 $2,499 +$1,521 (+156%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 60¢ 100¢ $990 $1,652 +$661 (+67%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 100¢ $280 $700 +$420 (+150%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $1,013 +$570 +56%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $500 +$88 +18%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $338 −$333 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $308 −$300 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $595 +$17 +3%
Will Westham Weasels win Deadman: All Stars Season 3? Jun 22 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Purpp Rebels win Deadman: All Stars Season 3? Jun 22 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Dino Nuggets win Deadman: All Stars Season 3? Jun 22 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Rhys Rhinos win Deadman: All Stars Season 3? Jun 22 $134 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 22 $252 +$68 +27%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $26 +$61 +237%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $337 +$185 +55%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $305 +$445 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,335 +$260 +20%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $319 −$316 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $369 −$365 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,008 +$47 +5%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $26 +$87 +338%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $200 +$200 +100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $503 +$138 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $996 +$591 +59%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $179 +$27 +15%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 19 $337 +$247 +73%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $460 +$147 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $339 +$494 +146%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $340 −$333 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $385 +$332 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,268 −$1,251 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,014 +$776 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $334 −$333 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $252 −$252 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $505 +$264 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $760 +$518 +68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $2,116 +$268 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $711 −$700 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $994 +$255 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 +$210 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $348 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 40¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 38¢ $561 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $285 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 60¢ $1,002 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 46¢ $338 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $308 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $97 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $43 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $172 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $2 4h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $715 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 85¢ $500 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $1,013 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $612 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $66 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $67 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $67 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $67 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $67 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,850.50 · official $4,850.50 (match) · 491 history records