Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f02…baad weather 899 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,469 (+62%) realized +$3,371 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%193W / 658L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day133.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$279
weather 35% −$169
sports 1% +$14
world 0% −$1
other 0% +$87
politics 0% −$6
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -6.1% -15.0% 47% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 851 -23.7% -30.9% 23% 20% -21.9%
≤90d 851 -23.7% -30.9% 23% 20% -21.9%
all 851 -23.7% -30.9% 23% 20% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 20% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 10% -29.4%
15% -43.6% 8% -36.2%
20% -49.1% 7% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$3,371
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses193 / 658
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)851 / 899
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day133.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lola "Lolo" Poggio win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+4450%)
Will Cinzia Francischiello win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 41¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+4000%)
Will Brian Sarmiento win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 47¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4600%)
Will Yanina Zilli win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 47¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4600%)
Will Emanuel Di Gioia win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 47¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4600%)
Will Nazareno Pompei win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 5¢ 46¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+820%)
Will Lola Tomaszewski win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+4450%)
Will Franco Zunino win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 5¢ 45¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+800%)
Will Juan "Juanicar" Caruso win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+4400%)
Will Luana Fernández win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4450%)
Will Eduardo Carrera win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4400%)
Will Jennifer "Pincoya" Galvarini win Big Brother Argentina 2026? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4100%)
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Pittsburgh Steelers next? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karim Adeyemi be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup sq Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade Français win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SoCal Hard Eights finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Innio's market cap be less than $17B at market close on IPO day? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Niclas Füllkrug be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tomás Palacios be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Máximo Perrone be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in May? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be less than $2.75B at m Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.75B and $5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing 92 win the 2026 Top 14 Final? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Andrich be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup s Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gabriel Rojas be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kevin Schade be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tanner Tessmann be included in the USA's official 2026 World Cup Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.25B and $4 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ISM Services PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in May? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finn Dahmen be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$17 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$17 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$17 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$27 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.26 · official $102.26 (match) · 3500 history records