Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f03…41ca other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2
politics 38% $0
weather 4% −$6
world 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 21% -28.8%
≤30d 39 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 21% -28.8%
≤90d 39 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 21% -28.8%
all 39 -18.7% -26.4% 33% 21% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 21% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 15% -35.6%
15% -39.9% 10% -41.8%
20% -45.8% 8% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions56
Markets (closed)39 / 95
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interes Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 22¢ $1 24h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 79¢ $2 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 93¢ $10 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 81¢ $1 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 42¢ $5 29h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $1 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $1 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $1 30h
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $1 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $1 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $1 43h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 43h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $1 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $1 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $1 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.97 · official $71.98 (match) · 140 history records