Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8F 0x8f04…182a sports 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-2%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%126W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$64
14 days−$42
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$309
other 36% +$151
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.9% +10.3% 80% 80% +10.0%
≤30d 18 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 166 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 32% -39.1%
all 241 +4.1% -5.8% 52% 49% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 49% -11.6%
10% -14.9% 41% -20.1%
15% -23.1% 32% -27.8%
20% -30.6% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses126 / 115
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 243
History coverage265d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$68 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $13 −$12 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$4 +54%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $19 −$19 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 +$70 +86%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $50 +$7 +13%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $50 +$24 +48%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $48 −$47 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 10 $19 +$16 +86%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $15 +$4 +29%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $40 +$18 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $61 +$108 +176%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $50 +$7 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $51 +$31 +62%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $3 +$10 +325%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $41 +$57 +140%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $3 +$12 +388%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $20 +$14 +67%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 05 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 05 $3 −$3 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $22 +$9 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 04 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $3 +$8 +250%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $3 +$6 +180%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $18 +$6 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $3 +$17 +550%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $121 −$120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $59 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 2d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 30¢ $13 12d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $12 12d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $8 12d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 24¢ $41 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 71¢ $101 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 48¢ $50 13d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 18¢ $50 13d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 41¢ $50 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $19 14d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 54¢ $101 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $30 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 21d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway SELL Switzerland 100¢ $57 21d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Switzerland 88¢ $50 21d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden BUY Switzerland 67¢ $25 22d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden BUY Switzerland 67¢ $25 22d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 32¢ $7 40d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 33¢ $10 40d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 75¢ $30 40d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 53¢ $19 41d
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY Shopify Rebellion 22¢ $3 41d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $15 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.44 · official $54.44 (match) · 487 history records