Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f09…2d71 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-10%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$14
world 7% +$3
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.6% -30.0% 33% 33% -61.1%
≤30d 4 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 50% -38.3%
≤90d 4 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 50% -38.3%
all 4 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 50% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 50% -38.3%
10% -19.6% 50% -44.2%
15% -27.4% 50% -49.6%
20% -34.5% 50% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 21m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $32 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 40h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $8 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.61 · official $47.61 (match) · 10 history records