Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f0a…3d66 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
politics 30% −$2
sports 10% −$1
world 10% −$1
economics 9% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,007) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage94d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 22 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Apr 16 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? Apr 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $982 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Mar 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 20 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $968 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,054 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $38 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,021 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $725 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $291 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,017 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 100¢ $83 42d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 100¢ $69 42d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $24 42d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $11 42d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 42d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 100¢ $14 42d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $14 42d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $14 42d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 42d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $54 66d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 66d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $23 66d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 66d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $32 66d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 66d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 67d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records