Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f0b…8be2 world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,472 (-3%) realized −$2,167 · open +$695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$20,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$116
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2,728
other 36% +$1,100
politics 3% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 4 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 25% -3.6%
≤90d 20 -26.0% -33.0% 65% 15% -22.9%
all 34 -13.5% -21.8% 74% 18% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 18% -17.8%
10% -29.2% 9% -25.7%
15% -36.1% 3% -32.9%
20% -42.3% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$400 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$20,343
Realized−$2,167
Unrealized+$695
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)34 / 74
History coverage161d
Avg bet$614
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,355 $1,412 +$57 (+4%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,391 $1,408 +$17 (+1%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,200 $1,220 +$20 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 81¢ $1,085 $1,113 +$28 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,011 $1,058 +$47 (+5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $848 $905 +$58 (+7%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $832 $858 +$26 (+3%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 75¢ 86¢ $700 $810 +$110 (+16%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $694 $768 +$74 (+11%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $760 $763 +$3 (+0%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $728 $757 +$29 (+4%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $715 $738 +$23 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $607 $651 +$44 (+7%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 88¢ 91¢ $620 $640 +$20 (+3%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $607 $612 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $588 $602 +$14 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $582 $579 −$3 (-1%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $566 $566 +$0 (+0%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $465 $490 +$25 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $450 $443 −$7 (-2%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $421 $422 +$1 (+0%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $360 $376 +$17 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $354 $366 +$12 (+4%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $348 $360 +$11 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $282 $286 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $900 +$33 +4%
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Jun 16 $751 +$83 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? May 07 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? May 07 $1,828 −$1,828 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? May 07 $1,680 −$684 -41%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? May 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Venezuela coup attempt by March 31? May 07 $245 +$7 +3%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? May 07 $1,035 +$50 +5%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? May 07 $462 +$87 +19%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026? May 07 $900 +$70 +8%
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? May 07 $603 +$231 +38%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? May 07 $1,313 +$89 +7%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? May 07 $1,146 +$76 +7%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? May 07 $2,323 +$187 +8%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? May 07 $2,664 +$110 +4%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $1,615 +$15 +1%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Feb 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Feb 20 $200 −$9 -5%
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? Feb 18 $460 +$115 +25%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Feb 17 $75 −$23 -30%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $800 +$16 +2%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Feb 01 $900 +$3 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition Feb 01 $600 +$23 +4%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $606 +$78 +13%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $140 +$12 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $100 +$23 +24%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $566 +$26 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $90 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $66 2h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $60 2h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $190 2h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 92¢ $75 2h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $112 2h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $124 2h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $215 2h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $933 2h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 14h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 18h
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $68 18h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 19h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $142 19h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 19h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 19h
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 19h
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $489 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $23 36h
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 36h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 36h
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 43h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $350 43h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $400 43h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $540 45h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $398 45h
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $14 2d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $7 2d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $89 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,342.88 · official $20,343.51 (match) · 433 history records