Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8F 0x8f0c…151e crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%153W / 104L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$2
14 days+$17
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$19
sports 25% +$31
other 6% +$9
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -25.4% -32.5% 41% 25% -9.3%
≤30d 257 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 257 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 46% -9.0%
all 257 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 46% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -9.0%
10% -24.2% 31% -17.7%
15% -31.5% 18% -25.7%
20% -38.2% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses153 / 104
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 71¢ 94¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $69 +$7 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $5 −$4 -81%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $11 −$4 -33%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $15 +$3 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $40 −$8 -20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $29 +$3 +12%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $30 +$11 +36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 71¢ $30 48m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 92¢ $48 53m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $47 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 70¢ $26 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 21¢ $2 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 3¢ $0 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 3¢ $28 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 4¢ $33 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $7 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 82¢ $5 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 85¢ $5 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $5 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $5 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $5 41h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $5 41h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 16¢ $1 41h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 62¢ $7 42h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 82¢ $5 43h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 91¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 43h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 67¢ $5 46h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 89¢ $5 46h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Maria Timofeeva 68¢ $5 46h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 68¢ $5 46h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 69¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.72 · official $39.72 (match) · 690 history records