Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f13…daae sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,749 (+46%) realized +$24,427 · open −$678
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%51W / 93L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day151.2pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$3,144
other 33% −$240
weather 7% +$300
politics 5% +$486
world 2% −$127
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$30
crypto 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -14.1% -22.3% 37% 13% -12.9%
≤30d 144 -22.5% -29.8% 35% 22% -13.8%
≤90d 144 -22.5% -29.8% 35% 22% -13.8%
all 144 -22.5% -29.8% 35% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 22% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 14% -22.1%
15% -42.7% 10% -29.6%
20% -48.3% 7% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$66 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,382
Realized+$24,427
Unrealized−$678
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses51 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions120
Markets (closed)144 / 173
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$299
Trades / day151.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 120 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $256 $253 −$2 (-1%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $224 $229 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $210 $206 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $136 $132 −$4 (-3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $141 $132 −$9 (-6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $135 $127 −$7 (-6%)
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez Joaquin Aguilar 40¢ 40¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? No 47¢ 30¢ $165 $104 −$61 (-37%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 13¢ 14¢ $91 $101 +$10 (+10%)
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $105 $100 −$4 (-4%)
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? Yes 23¢ 40¢ $52 $91 +$38 (+74%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $142 $77 −$65 (-46%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? No 55¢ 26¢ $133 $64 −$69 (-52%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $119 $51 −$68 (-57%)
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $58 $49 −$9 (-15%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No 14¢ 10¢ $65 $49 −$16 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $75 $46 −$29 (-38%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-7%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $82 $43 −$40 (-48%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-8%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $46 $39 −$7 (-16%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $74 $29 −$44 (-60%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $36 $25 −$12 (-32%)
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 24 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2,518 +$248 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $280 −$19 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $462 +$21 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $554 −$46 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,482 −$37 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1,231 −$23 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $457 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $14 −$5 -38%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $614 +$194 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $267 −$20 -8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$49 -96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $312 −$137 -44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $624 −$183 -29%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $568 −$72 -13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $605 −$266 -44%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,453 −$42 -3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $168 −$54 -32%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $385 −$3 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $441 +$197 +45%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $343 +$37 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $887 +$2 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $600 +$29 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $270 +$17 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $33 −$26 -79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,574 −$28 -2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $228 −$221 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $438 −$138 -32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,080 +$1 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $294 +$6 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $385 +$3 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $129 +$27 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $67 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$140 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $248 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $176 +$41 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $314 +$32 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $128 −$12 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$49 +451%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $579 −$51 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $331 −$49 -15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $354 −$15 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $249 29m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $125 37m
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? SELL Yes 98¢ $71 56m
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 58m
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat? SELL No 93¢ $42 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $120 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? BUY Yes 94¢ $131 2h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? BUY Yes 99¢ $159 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $98 3h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 4h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $27 4h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 6h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 8h
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 8h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY No 30¢ $7 9h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez BUY Joaquin Aguilar 41¢ $81 16h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 59¢ $224 17h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $21 18h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 18h
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 18h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,382.36 · official $2,370.65 (match) · 3500 history records