Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8F 0x8f14…47ca politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$1
other 35% −$1
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage104d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $111 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $113 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $111 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $111 11h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $111 16d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $111 17d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $111 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $111 31d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 32d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 33d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $111 36d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $111 37d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 40d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 41d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $112 61d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $112 61d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $112 65d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $113 65d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 69d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 70d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 72d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 73d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 84d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $113 84d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 90d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 90d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 93d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 94d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 94d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 94d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 94d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records