Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f15…0d61 politics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$9
politics 30% −$7
world 16% −$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$948) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage100d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R Jun 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,218 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 27 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Jun 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 27 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Jun 26 $83 $0 +0%
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $899 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election May 14 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 14 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $945 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $26 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 20 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R SELL No 100¢ $47 18m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 26m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 33m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 47m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $897 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $270 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,153 17h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $62 17h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 17h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,121 17h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 17h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,189 18h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 18h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 18h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $34 18h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $888 18h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 18h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 18h
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 47h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $28 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $16 47h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 47h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records