Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f16…c3ef politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$5
other 35% −$3
sports 9% −$3
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -18.7% -26.4% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -14.0% -22.2% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 85 -10.0% -18.5% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage382d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? Feb 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $113 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $58 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 01 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 05 $59 $0 +0%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $51 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $51 16d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 28d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 32d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 37d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 49d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 111d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 111d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 113d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 114d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 114d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 118d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 118d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 119d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 121d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 121d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $1.30 (match) · 443 history records