Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8F
0x8f17…b55d
sports · 450 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$4,590 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,292 · open +$162
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,171
Realized+$4,292
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses354 / 81
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions11
Markets (closed)435 / 450
History coverage353d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 11 History 435 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$730
14 days+$788
30 days+$3,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $320 $410 +$90 (+28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $278 $283 +$5 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $67 $116 +$48 (+72%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $134 $98 −$36 (-27%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $72 $88 +$16 (+23%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 12¢ 47¢ $20 $80 +$59 (+292%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 16¢ 36¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+118%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $55 $32 −$23 (-42%)
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) New Zealand 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 13¢ 46¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+253%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 15¢ 64¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+330%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 38¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Atlanta Braves 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $33 +$27 +80%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $109 −$3 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 14 $17 +$18 +109%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$10 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Scotland to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +203%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$6 +635%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +300%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $112 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $81 +$44 +54%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? Jun 12 $3 +$18 +567%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$90 +900%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $19 +$19 +97%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 +1521%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 +97%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $165 +$135 +82%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 11 $195 +$160 +82%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $44 +$176 +400%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 11 $549 +$6 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$15 +21%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 11 $197 $0 +0%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $0 +$2 +1900%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 10 $66 +$7 +10%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $71 +$5 +7%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$3,882
other 19% +$644
politics 1% −$57
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 5¢ $0 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $18 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 77¢ $15 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 7¢ $8 8h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $40 14h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 3¢ $0 14h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $12 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 15h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 33¢ $5 15h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY No 47¢ $17 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $37 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 17h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $1 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $6 18h
Scotland to win the second half? BUY No 33¢ $5 18h
Scotland to win the second half? BUY No 33¢ $0 18h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 23h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY No 25¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +95.2% +76.6% 80% 33% +7.3%
≤30d 165 +82.3% +65.0% 79% 40% +23.1%
≤90d 349 +54.0% +39.3% 81% 33% +14.7%
all 435 +53.4% +38.8% 81% 29% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.8% 29% +12.6%
10% +25.5% 23% +1.8%
15% +13.4% 18% -8.0%
20% +2.3% 14% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,170.77 · official $1,178.77 (match) · 1491 history records