Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8F 0x8f1a…6840 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-14%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$92
other 23% +$117
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +102.1% +82.9% 50% 50% +69.0%
≤30d 2 +102.1% +82.9% 50% 50% +69.0%
≤90d 22 -17.8% -25.6% 50% 36% -5.1%
all 22 -17.8% -25.6% 50% 36% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -5.1%
10% -32.8% 27% -14.2%
15% -39.3% 23% -22.5%
20% -45.2% 18% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage84d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$134 +226%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 28 $10 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays Mar 28 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 28 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 28 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 28 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $13 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 28 $49 −$20 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 28 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 28 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 28 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $74 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 50m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $59 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $59 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 84d
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $10 84d
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ $6 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $19 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $22 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $13 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $22 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $17 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $29 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $72 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $67 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records